Las Vegas Real Estate Market Report, September 2015

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As we officially enter the final month of Q3, 2015, the Las Vegas real estate market continues to show signs of improvement!

Indicators across all four major segments, including single family residences, investment and rental properties, commercial real estate, and industrial, reflect the continued growth and rebound of our local market.

Residential Real Estate

The residential real estate market is not only strong but also continuing to improve, as prices have increased 9 to 11%, year-over-year, depending on location and price point.   Over 50% of listed homes are going into contract within 30 days.  This data suggests that if the property is priced correctly, sellers can anticipate offers within an average of 60 days.

Currently, there are 7,595 single family residences (SFR) available, not under contract.  The Las Vegas residential market is also averaging 2,440 sales per month, indicating the market is currently at or below a 90 day supply.

Absorption rates, however, vary within each price band. For example, properties priced at each of the following maintain a current supply of:

  • Under $300k – 2 month supply
  • $301-$500k- 5 month supply
  • $501k- $800k -9 month supply
  • $800k-$1MM- 10 month supply
  • $1MM & Over – 15 month supply

While the price band absorption is subject to location, it offers a strong indication as to the importance of pricing.

Though supply is relatively strong in the high end Luxe market ($1MM & Over), this price band appears to be improving.  As of September 1, 2015, Luxe market inventory was 355 available homes (priced above $1MM), while only 270 homes sold in the last 12 months.

The high end market is very sensitive to location with new construction in the Ridges and Macdonald Highlands commanding higher price per sq ft than other mature areas such as Tournament hills and Red Rock Country Club. The Ridges commanded the highest sale in years at 11MM last month.

Across all price bands, the median price of Las Vegas homes is $275k, which is still 15% lower than 2006, supporting continued gradual increased appreciation.

Notice of Defaults have also increased.  We anticipate this resulting in more trustee sales, which may affect the average cost of homes sold.  Additionally, Heloc’s and adjustable rate mortgages from 2005 and 2006 are still adjusting and, unfortunately, home equity has not rebounded enough to cover refinancing.  The Brazill Team is diligently monitoring this situation, to Las Vegas homeowners.

Investment and Rental Real Estate

Similar to the residential real estate marketing, the Las Vegas rental real estate market continues to show signs of improvement.

Currently, there are currently 2,853 rentals on the market in the Las Vegas Valley.  On average, 2,661 residences are rented each month, leaving an inventory of less than a 2 month supply of homes (1.07).

The time on market varies, according to price range.  As of September 1, 2015, calculations were as follows, based on monthly rent:

  • Up to $1000/mo – Less than .75 month supply
  • $1100-$1200/mo – 1.02 month supply
  • $1201-$1300/mo – .9 month supply
  • $1301-$1400/mo – 1.09 month supply
  • $1401- $1500/mo – 1.16 month supply

The market has also seen an increase in monthly rental rates.

Commercial Real Estate

Land prices throughout the Valley are still climbing!  Though single family dirt remains relatively flat, averaging $375k to $400k per acre in Class A locations, multi-family land is still heavily in demand, with prices ranging from $460k to $600k per acre.  Additionally, hard zoned, multi-family has been picked clean in the last 3 years and site selection has been a challenge.

Retail land is trading, when there are AAA credit leases in place, and single tenant development is increasing in good locations.   Industrial land is also trading, with tenant driven development.

Office Development – Medical office development on the rise.

Office Market – The office market is still struggling with oversupply and a 18.5% vacancy. New construction near hospitals, in all areas of the valley, is allowing the medical office segment to pick up.

Multi-family – The multi-family segment is still on fire with demand increasing.  As the Millennials market is opting to rent, rather than buy, as they want all of the amenities with less maintenance, builders are conceding.  Merchant builders are also cashing in as prices on Class A properties are closing near $200k per door.

Cap rates are compressing to low 5’s and in some cases sub 5. There are thousands of units slated to come online in 2016 so we will be watching vacancy next year to see if we are approaching hyper supply.

Retail – The retail segment is bouncing back!  The vacancy down to 9.7% and the asking rental rate has increased to 1.28 PSF NNN. The ICSC conference was finally packed this year with a lot of optimistic retailers signing several leases.

Industrial Real Estate

As with the other major segments of the Las Vegas real estate market, industrial real estate is also showing signs of improvement.  Overall, industrial vacancy is down to 6.6%, year-over-year.  Warehouse distribution is driving the increased demand, and pushing average rental rates to $0.57 PSF NNN.

 Conclusion

The Las Vegas real estate market is at the top end of recovery, phasing into expansion in most segments, except office. Multi-family is phasing from expansion to hyper supply with all of the new projects in the pipeline.

For more information about the current state of the Las Vegas real estate market, or to discuss buying or selling your real estate, please contact Stacy or Antone Brazill via phone, 702-278-3886, or visit The Brazill Team online at www.thebrazillteam.com.

This Las Vegas Real Estate Market Report was compiled by Stacy and Antone Brazill, The Brazill Team.  This report was developed using data from various industry reports as well as the Brazill’s vast knowledge of the local marketplace.  Stacy and Antone Brazill have worked in the Las Vegas real estate market for decades and their agency is deeply experienced in all facets of traditional and investment real estate including Multi-family, Land, Office, Retail, Industrial, Residential and Development. 

For questions regarding this report, or to obtain additional information about current Las Vegas real estate opportunities, please contact The Brazill Team at 702-278-3886 or visit their website, www.thebrazillteam.com.

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Las Vegas Real Estate Market Snapshot | 2014

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While Southern Nevada’s economy has not reached the dizzying heights of the boom, it does seem to have safely left the bust behind! In fact, we think it’s safe to say the Great Recession appears to be officially over and the initial phases of recovery and stabilization are well underway, both in our overall economic position and our local real estate market. Is the Valley poised to grow anew?

Moderate growth continues unabated and is expected to continue into 2015. Between 2010 and 2013, new home sales increased 37.6 percent, out-of-state drivers licenses turned in to the DMV increased 28.6 percent, taxable sales increased 18.4 percent, and gaming revenue increased 8.6 percent. Though 2014 has shown some deterioration in terms of new home sales and in-migration into the area, taxable sales improved. Employment also increased 3 percent from July 2013 to July 2014.

These economic improvements have translated into improvements in our local real estate market. Occupancy in commercial real estate projects has increased by three percentage points to 2.9 percent and we are seeing growth in other sectors as well.

Las Vegas Industrial Market

The first half of 2014 looked promising for Southern Nevada’s industrial market, racking up over 2 million square feet of net absorption and knocking industrial vacancy below 10 percent for the first time since 2008. The question then was whether we could expect similar numbers in the second half of the year. If the third quarter of 2014 is any indication, the answer is maybe.

Net absorption in the third quarter of 2014 was 635,780 square feet, roughly equal to net absorption in the first quarter of 2014, and occurring in concert with only 14,248 square feet of new completions, far less completions than in the first quarter. Strong net absorption in speculative projects is a sign of sustainable recovery, and important given that speculative construction will likely loom larger in 2015 than in the past five years. Industrial vacancy decreased to 9.2 percent, two percentage points lower than one year ago. The weighted average asking rental rate increased to $0.55 per square foot (psf) on a triple net (NNN) basis, $0.04 cents higher than one year ago.

Las Vegas Office Market

Every year, Southern Nevada’s office market begins a new recovery, and every year it comes up just a little short in the end. Though the office market recovery has not been pretty, it is a recovery of sorts.

In the third quarter of 2014, net absorption decreased to 44,964 square feet from almost one half-million in the second quarter of 2014 and the third quarter of 2013. New completions were slightly higher, at 12,000 square feet. Vacancy rates managed to decrease to 19.3 percent from 19.4 percent in the second quarter of 2014. Asking rates remained in neutral, ringing in at $1.87 per square foot (psf) on a Full Service Gross (FSG) basis.

Las Vegas Retail Market

The second quarter of 2014 saw the retail market turn around and post positive net absorption after two quarters of negative net absorption. The third quarter of 2014 continued the positive trend, with net absorption staying just one step ahead of new completions; a good performance, but not a great performance.

Net absorption in the third quarter was 242,296 square feet, slightly higher than in the second quarter of 2014, and more than double net absorption in the third quarter of 2013. New completions also increased quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, with a 220,000 square foot power center added to inventory this quarter. Retail vacancy decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0 percent, while the average asking rental rate increased to $1.31 per square foot (psf) on a triple net (NNN) basis.

Las Vegas Medical Office Market

When we write that Southern Nevada’s medical office has gone from bad to worse, we feel as though we must be repeating ourselves. In fact, a pattern of positive net absorption for one or two quarters followed by one or two quarters of negative net absorption is emerging in the medical office market, creating a sense of running in place.

Net absorption in the third quarter of 2014 was negative 104,034 square feet, sending medical office vacancy up to 18.7 percent. Asking lease rates remained stable at $2.15 per square foot (PSF) on a full service gross (FSG) basis.

Las Vegas Land Market

Total sales volume for land in Southern Nevada remains well below the levels seen in 2007, but the market has recovered dramatically since the years of the Great Recession. The number of acres sold in the first three quarters of 2014 is higher than in the first three quarters of 2013, with 1,889 acres trading so far this year compared to 1,455 acres trading in 2013. Sales volume was higher than in 2013 in the first three quarters of the year, and naturally this means that the price per square foot of land is also higher. In 2007, land was selling, on average, for $22.93 per square foot (psf). After the market collapsed in 2008, land prices reached a low of $4.41 psf in 2012. In the third quarter of 2014, the average price for land stood at $7.61. This increase in land prices is indicative of the greater interest developers and investors are showing in the Valley’s land market.

Las Vegas Hotel & Hospitality Market

Southern Nevada’s hospitality market continued to improve through the second quarter of 2014. Average annual room occupancy, for example, jumped from 87.0 percent to 89.5 percent, and the average annual ADR (average daily room rate) dropped slightly from $121.73 to $119.75. This brought revenue per available room (RevPAR) up to $104.61 from $101.77. In 2014, RevPAR is now almost $10 higher than it was in 2013, a significant leap (though not as significant as the $15 leap between 2010 and 2011). This suggests that Las Vegas has largely recovered from the Great Recession, just in time for new expansions of the Valley’s room inventory.

Las Vegas Multifamily Market

According to statistics provided by REIS, multifamily vacancy in Southern Nevada decreased in the second quarter of 2014 (the most recent quarter of available data), extending a three year long streak. Vacancy stood at 5.5 percent in the second quarter, 0.4 percentage points lower than one year ago, and 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter of 2014. Class A properties were 5.7 percent vacant in the second quarter, the same as in the first quarter of 2014. Class B/C properties were 5.3 percent vacant, 0.5 points lower than in the first quarter of 2014.

To learn more about the current state of Las Vegas’ real estate market, or to discuss real estate opportunities, please contact us or call Antone Brazill at 702.434.0091.